In a recent report, Goldman Sachs has presented a series of forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil prices under varying economic and geopolitical conditions, reflecting the growing uncertainty in global energy markets. These projections consider factors such as the possibility of a U.S. recession, global GDP growth trends, and decisions by the OPEC+ alliance regarding oil production levels.
Base Case Scenario: Moderate Growth and Balanced Supply
In its base case scenario, Goldman Sachs assumes that the United States avoids a recession and the OPEC+ coalition increases production in a measured manner. Under this environment, demand remains relatively stable while supply grows gradually, avoiding any severe market imbalance.
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Brent crude is expected to average $62 per barrel by December 2025.
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WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is forecasted at $58 per barrel during the same period.
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By December 2026, Brent and WTI prices are projected to decline slightly to $55 and $51 per barrel, respectively.
This scenario suggests a relatively soft landing for oil markets, with prices staying above key production breakeven levels, supporting moderate profitability for producers while keeping inflationary pressures in check for consumers.
Mild Recession Scenario: Slowing U.S. Growth
Should the U.S. economy enter a mild recession, Goldman projects a modest decline in oil prices. In this case, decreased industrial activity and consumer demand would reduce energy consumption, applying downward pressure on prices.
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Brent may slide to $58 per barrel by late 2025, with further declines expected in 2026.
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WTI prices would likely follow a similar trajectory.
This outlook assumes that OPEC+ maintains current supply levels, and global geopolitical tensions remain contained. However, weaker economic activity would inevitably cap any potential rally in oil prices.
Global Growth Slowdown Scenario: Stagnant Demand
A global economic slowdown — even without a technical recession in the U.S. — presents a more bearish picture. In a scenario where world GDP growth stalls and OPEC maintains existing supply, oil prices could dip significantly.
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Brent prices could fall to $54 per barrel in 2025 and drop further to $45 per barrel in 2026.
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The effects of declining demand across Asia, Europe, and emerging markets would be particularly impactful.
This outcome reflects the vulnerability of oil markets to global demand shocks, especially in the absence of production cuts by major suppliers.
Worst-Case Scenario: Global Recession and Full OPEC+ Supply Reversal
The most pessimistic projection from Goldman Sachs envisions a full-blown global recession combined with a complete reversal of OPEC+ production cuts. In this scenario, oil markets would be flooded with excess supply while demand collapses.
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Brent crude could plunge below $40 per barrel by late 2026, a level not seen in nearly a decade.
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Such price levels would strain government budgets of oil-dependent nations and trigger a wave of bankruptcies among high-cost producers, particularly in the U.S. shale sector.
Goldman warns that this combination of weak demand and high supply would likely destabilize oil markets and amplify volatility.
Revised Forecasts Reflect Trade and Geopolitical Tensions
Goldman Sachs has already revised down its official oil price forecasts for 2025 due to rising geopolitical risks and an unexpected increase in OPEC+ production. The investment bank now sees:
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Brent at $69 per barrel (previously higher),
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WTI at $66 per barrel.
These changes reflect ongoing trade disputes, particularly between the U.S. and China, as well as uncertainty regarding the future actions of oil-producing countries.
Conclusion: Oil Markets Face Complex and Uncertain Outlook
The latest forecasts from Goldman Sachs underscore just how sensitive oil prices are to macroeconomic shifts and policy decisions. With the global economy at a crossroads and OPEC+ signaling mixed intentions, the oil market’s future path remains uncertain.
From moderate growth to potential crisis scenarios, investors, policymakers, and energy companies must now prepare for a wide range of outcomes — where Brent could range anywhere between $40 and $69 per barrel, depending on how the next 18 months unfold.
